A Terror Attack is Probable, and Obfuscation is Unavoidable

The PM talks in riddles but I think we know what he means

Australians were told yesterday that the terror threat has been raised from “likely” to “probable”.

We were also told that “probable” didn’t mean “inevitable”.

And we were told that the decision to move from likely to probable was not based on any specific information. It was more a general sort of vibe on the part of our security agencies.

The description of where the probable threat will probably come from was sort of vibey as well.

“The nation’s domestic spy chief warned on Monday that surging levels of personal grievance and intolerance were driving disaffected Australians to violence.”

I had surging levels of personal grievance after being cut-off at a roundabout last Friday. I can also be quite intolerant - glutton, dairy, and the like.

Is that what the domestic spy chief means? Am I someone they should be monitoring?

Personal grievances about what, specifically, will drive Australians to violence?

Interest rates?

Power bills?

The price of hot dogs at the MCG?

Our spy agencies are going to be watching everyone!

ASIO boss Mike Burgess went on to blame …

“ … social media for amplifying a raft of ­extremist ideologies and conspiracy theories.”

Social media amplifies ideologies for sure, but who pray tell are the ideologues?

And what are these extremist ideologies that have now made a terror attack “probable”?

Extreme Christianity is going to make someone extremely likely to do unto others as they could have others do unto them.

That doesn’t sound like an extreme ideology that makes a terror attack probable, or even likely.

I can’t ever remember seeing a Presbyterian church deacon wearing an explosive vest. Maybe I’ve just never met an extremist Presbyterian.

And what of those “probable” terrorists motivated by conspiracy theories?

I have a friend who believes the moon landing was a conspiracy. Before yesterday I thought she was nuts. Now I’m afraid she’s the kind of person ASIO is worried about. Do I make a citizen’s arrest?

On a personal note, I’m pretty certain big tech and the CIA interfered in the 2020 US presidential election, probably tipping it for Joe Biden. But wait. I’m not a terror threat because that is not a conspiracy theory. Remove the ankle bracelet - please?

“Mr Burgess put the threat of an attack over the next 12 months at higher than 50 per cent, warning young lone-wolf actors with guns and knives posed the biggest risk.”

Ok, so over the next year we’re looking for young people with a grievance. That really narrows it down.

Here’s a clue …

“ASIO boss Mike Burgess said the war in Gaza was contributing to the growing terrorist threat, which would escalate if the conflict spread to Southern Lebanon.

“But the rising tensions in the Middle East were not the only ­factor, he said.”

Aha!

So the rising terror threat could have something to do with the “war in Gaza”. Still a little vague, but I think we can take a wild guess.

Please don’t say it though. Just give me that knowing look. It’s safer.

And, of course, "rising tensions in the Middle East” (which is another way of saying what we all know but cannot say) is “not the only factor” which is another way of saying that it is.

Of course, we’ll play along and pretend that those extremist Salvation Army folk pose. a threat with their tambourines and brass bands and shouts of “help the poor in Jesus name”.

Anyway, the Australian went on to report that …

“The heightened threat level follows eight terrorist attacks or disruptions of terror plots since April, including the Wakeley church stabbing by a 16-year-old boy, which triggered more than two dozen further arrests.”

If only we had some kind of clue as to what may have triggered the Wakeley church stabbing.

All I will say at this point is that extremism by disaffected Presbyterians cannot be discounted.

It should be noted that the “more than two dozen further arrests” referred to - trigged by the church stabbing - were for rioting, not for terrorism.

It’s an unfortunate but inescapable fact of life that people tend to riot when their Church minister is stabbed in the eye by a um, you know … person with a grievance that may or may not be related to a conspiracy theory they saw on social media while researching extreme vegetarianism.

Or maybe he was motivated by Islam. But, seriously, what would be the chances?

It’s far more likely, by which I now mean probable, that the motivation was something more sinister, by which I mean more vague.

The Prime Minister called on Australians to …

“lower the ­temperature of debate”

Which I would do if I knew what the “debate” was.

But then …

He blasted the Greens party, which has accused Labor of “complicity in genocide”, saying its encouragement of protesters who have blockaded and vandalised Labor MPs’ offices is designed to trigger a partisan response.

Hmm. So we’re worried that promoting the idea a genocide is being committed against the Palestinians might encourage intolerant people with personal grievances who believe in wild conspiracy theories to commit violent acts of terror?

Okay, now I know exactly who we’re talking about. I think.